Matchup context
Home: FC Barcelona — 1st (P10 W9 D0 L1, GF 40 GA 11, 27 pts, form LWWWW). Last five: H Real Madrid CF 1-2 (L), A Real Betis Balompié 5-2 (W), H Getafe CF 3-0 (W), A Sevilla FC 3-1 (W), H Real Racing Club de Santander 7-2 (W). Rating: attack 1.90, defence 0.86 from 20 matches.
Away: Deportivo Alavés — 7th (P10 W3 D3 L4, GF 14 GA 11, 12 pts, form DLLDL). Last five: H Málaga CF 1-1 (D), A RC Celta de Vigo 1-2 (L), H Club Atlético de Madrid 1-2 (L), A Athletic Club 0-0 (D), H Valencia CF 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.00, defence 0.99 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-13 Deportivo Alavés 1-0 FC Barcelona; 2025-11-29 FC Barcelona 3-1 Deportivo Alavés.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 3.02 vs 0.99; home 77.7% · draw 13% · away 9.2%; most likely score 3-0; over 2.5 goals 76.2%; both teams to score 59.8%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-30 17:17 UTC): home 1.1 · draw 10.5 · away 21; over/under 2.5: 1.2/4.5.