Matchup context
Home: US Lecce — 14th (P9 W3 D0 L6, GF 10 GA 19, 9 pts, form LLWLL). Last five: A Frosinone Calcio 1-5 (L), H Juventus FC 0-2 (L), A Udinese Calcio 3-0 (W), H Bologna FC 1909 1-2 (L), A AC Milan 0-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.88, defence 1.29 from 20 matches.
Away: Genoa CFC — 13th (P9 W3 D1 L5, GF 8 GA 13, 10 pts, form WWLWL). Last five: H Juventus FC 2-0 (W), H Venezia FC 1-0 (W), A AS Roma 0-2 (L), H ACF Fiorentina 2-1 (W), A Parma Calcio 1913 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.77, defence 0.98 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-24 US Lecce 1-0 Genoa CFC; 2025-08-23 Genoa CFC 0-0 US Lecce.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.15 vs 1.22; home 34.4% · draw 27.8% · away 37.7%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 42.3%; both teams to score 48.2%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-31 05:17 UTC): home 3.25 · draw 3.05 · away 2.38; over/under 2.5: 2.38/1.56.