Matchup context
Home: FC Porto — 30th (P2 W0 D0 L2, GF 2 GA 5, 0 pts, form LL). Last five: A Real Betis Balompié 2-3 (L), H Manchester City FC 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.88, defence 1.11 from 2 matches.
Away: PSV — 26th (P2 W0 D1 L1, GF 1 GA 2, 1 pts, form LD). Last five: A RB Leipzig 0-1 (L), H FK Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 (D), H FC Bayern München 1-2 (L), A Newcastle United FC 0-3 (L), H Club Atlético de Madrid 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.92, defence 0.99 from 10 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.81 vs 1.55; home 44.3% · draw 22.6% · away 33.1%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 65.3%; both teams to score 65.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-19 17:17 UTC): home 1.57 · draw 4.625 · away 5.24; over/under 2.5: 1.5/2.62.
