Matchup context
Home: Club Atlético de Madrid — 2nd (P9 W7 D1 L1, GF 19 GA 8, 22 pts, form WWWWW). Last five: A RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1-0 (W), A Deportivo Alavés 2-1 (W), H Real Madrid CF 2-1 (W), H CA Osasuna 4-0 (W), A Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.25, defence 0.89 from 20 matches.
Away: RC Deportivo La Coruña — 9th (P9 W2 D5 L2, GF 13 GA 12, 11 pts, form DLDLD). Last five: H Levante UD 1-1 (D), A Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L), H Real Betis Balompié 1-1 (D), H Sevilla FC 0-1 (L), A Getafe CF 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.00, defence 1.01 from 9 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.01 vs 1.04; home 60% · draw 21.1% · away 18.9%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 58.8%; both teams to score 55.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 18 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-23 23:17 UTC): home 1.27 · draw 5.975 · away 10; over/under 2.5: 1.55/2.435.