Matchup context
Home: Borussia Dortmund — 2nd (P6 W4 D2 L0, GF 11 GA 4, 14 pts, form DDWWW). Last five: A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-0 (D), H SV Werder Bremen 2-2 (D), A VfB Stuttgart 1-0 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 3-0 (W), A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 1.10, defence 0.67 from 20 matches.
Away: Eintracht Frankfurt — 11th (P6 W2 D2 L2, GF 10 GA 16, 8 pts, form WLDWL). Last five: H 1. FC Köln 1-0 (W), A RB Leipzig 0-6 (L), H SC Freiburg 2-2 (D), A 1. FSV Mainz 05 3-1 (W), H FC Augsburg 1-4 (L). Rating: attack 0.95, defence 1.17 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-08 Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt; 2026-01-09 Eintracht Frankfurt 3-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.39 vs 0.92; home 69.9% · draw 17.3% · away 12.7%; most likely score 2-0; over 2.5 goals 64.3%; both teams to score 54.7%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-23 05:17 UTC): home 1.45 · draw 5.13 · away 5.87; over/under 2.5: 1.34/3.25.