Matchup context
Home: AS Roma — 3rd (P8 W5 D3 L0, GF 19 GA 6, 18 pts, form DWDDW). Last five: A SSC Napoli 3-3 (D), H Genoa CFC 2-0 (W), A Como 1907 0-0 (D), H FC Internazionale Milano 2-2 (D), A Torino FC 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.53, defence 0.82 from 20 matches.
Away: Cagliari Calcio — 9th (P8 W4 D1 L3, GF 6 GA 9, 13 pts, form LLDWW). Last five: H Bologna FC 1909 0-2 (L), A AC Monza 0-4 (L), H Juventus FC 1-1 (D), A Udinese Calcio 1-0 (W), A Atalanta BC 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.78, defence 1.04 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-09 AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari Calcio; 2025-12-07 Cagliari Calcio 1-0 AS Roma.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.12 vs 0.77; home 68.6% · draw 19.1% · away 12.3%; most likely score 2-0; over 2.5 goals 55%; both teams to score 47.1%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-26 17:17 UTC): home 1.34 · draw 5.04 · away 9.5; over/under 2.5: 1.66/2.2.