Matchup context
Home: Como 1907 — 8th (P5 W3 D1 L1, GF 9 GA 6, 10 pts, form LWWWD). Last five: A Frosinone Calcio 0-2 (L), H Parma Calcio 1913 2-1 (W), A Genoa CFC 4-1 (W), A SSC Napoli 2-1 (W), A Udinese Calcio 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.34, defence 0.84 from 20 matches.
Away: AS Roma — 1st (P5 W4 D1 L0, GF 14 GA 3, 13 pts, form DWWWW). Last five: H FC Internazionale Milano 2-2 (D), A Torino FC 2-0 (W), H Atalanta BC 2-1 (W), A US Lecce 4-0 (W), H ACF Fiorentina 4-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.64, defence 0.80 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-15 Como 1907 2-1 AS Roma; 2025-12-15 AS Roma 1-0 Como 1907.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.39 vs 1.62; home 32.9% · draw 24.1% · away 43%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 58%; both teams to score 60.3%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-10 11:17 UTC): home 2.55 · draw 3.545 · away 2.65; over/under 2.5: 1.61/2.28.