Matchup context
Home: AS Roma — 23rd (P1 W0 D1 L0, GF 1 GA 1, 1 pts, form D). Last five: A Como 1907 0-0 (D), H FC Internazionale Milano 2-2 (D), A Torino FC 2-0 (W), A Fenerbahçe SK 1-1 (D), H Atalanta BC 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.53, defence 0.76 from 20 matches.
Away: Real Madrid CF — 15th (P1 W1 D0 L0, GF 2 GA 1, 3 pts, form W). Last five: H Villarreal CF 1-0 (W), A Club Atlético de Madrid 1-2 (L), A Elche CF 3-2 (W), H Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 4-1 (W), H FC Internazionale Milano 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.18, defence 0.91 from 15 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1 (domestic ratings)): expected goals 2.33 vs 1.20; home 62.8% · draw 18.9% · away 18.3%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 68.4%; both teams to score 63%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-13 17:17 UTC): home 3.66 · draw 4 · away 1.92; over/under 2.5: 1.44/2.83.