Matchup context
Home: Borussia Mönchengladbach — 18th (P5 W0 D0 L5, GF 7 GA 18, 0 pts, form LLLLL). Last five: A 1. FC Köln 1-2 (L), H 1. FSV Mainz 05 3-4 (L), A SC Freiburg 0-5 (L), H SV 07 Elversberg 3-4 (L), A RB Leipzig 0-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.90, defence 1.22 from 20 matches.
Away: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — 17th (P5 W1 D0 L4, GF 9 GA 13, 3 pts, form LLWLL). Last five: H Hamburger SV 2-3 (L), A SC Paderborn 07 1-3 (L), H VfB Stuttgart 2-1 (W), H Borussia Dortmund 2-3 (L), A 1. FC Köln 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.00, defence 1.26 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-16 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim; 2026-01-14 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 5-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.09 vs 1.76; home 46% · draw 20.9% · away 33.1%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 73.9%; both teams to score 72.6%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-17 17:17 UTC): home 3.1 · draw 4 · away 2.06; over/under 2.5: 1.39/3.