Matchup context
Home: CA Osasuna — 16th (P8 W2 D2 L4, GF 8 GA 18, 8 pts, form LDLLL). Last five: A Real Betis Balompié 2-5 (L), H Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-1 (D), A Club Atlético de Madrid 0-4 (L), H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0-2 (L), A Deportivo Alavés 2-5 (L). Rating: attack 0.84, defence 1.38 from 20 matches.
Away: Real Racing Club de Santander — 15th (P8 W2 D2 L4, GF 13 GA 23, 8 pts, form DLLWL). Last five: H Valencia CF 2-2 (D), A RC Celta de Vigo 0-5 (L), A FC Barcelona 2-7 (L), H Deportivo Alavés 2-1 (W), A Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.10, defence 1.66 from 8 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.22 vs 1.74; home 49% · draw 20.3% · away 30.7%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 75.6%; both teams to score 73.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-17 11:17 UTC): home 2 · draw 3.7 · away 3.65; over/under 2.5: 1.62/2.22.