Matchup context
Home: Hamburger SV — 15th (P8 W3 D0 L5, GF 7 GA 19, 9 pts, form LLWWW). Last five: A Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 (L), A SC Paderborn 07 0-1 (L), H VfB Stuttgart 1-0 (W), A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 (W), H 1. FC Köln 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.78, defence 1.17 from 20 matches.
Away: Borussia Mönchengladbach — 18th (P8 W1 D1 L6, GF 11 GA 22, 4 pts, form DWLLL). Last five: H SC Paderborn 07 0-0 (D), A VfB Stuttgart 3-2 (W), H TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 (L), A 1. FC Köln 1-2 (L), H 1. FSV Mainz 05 3-4 (L). Rating: attack 0.90, defence 1.15 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-17 Hamburger SV 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach; 2025-08-24 Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 Hamburger SV.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.65 vs 1.51; home 41.2% · draw 23.5% · away 35.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 61.3%; both teams to score 63.1%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-05 23:17 UTC): home 2.4 · draw 3.6 · away 2.73; over/under 2.5: 1.61/2.27.