Matchup context
Home: Sunderland AFC — 14th (P5 W1 D1 L3, GF 6 GA 10, 4 pts, form LLDWL). Last five: A Manchester City FC 3-5 (L), H Arsenal FC 0-2 (L), A Brentford FC 1-1 (D), H Fulham FC 1-0 (W), A Ipswich Town FC 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.94, defence 1.17 from 20 matches.
Away: Brighton & Hove Albion FC — 3rd (P5 W3 D1 L1, GF 16 GA 5, 10 pts, form WWDLW). Last five: H Arsenal FC 3-0 (W), A Coventry City FC 5-0 (W), H Leeds United FC 1-1 (D), A Chelsea FC 3-4 (L), H Aston Villa FC 4-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.32, defence 0.84 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-14 Sunderland AFC 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC; 2025-12-20 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-0 Sunderland AFC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.20 vs 1.90; home 24% · draw 22.4% · away 53.6%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 60%; both teams to score 59.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-09 11:17 UTC): home 3.05 · draw 3.5 · away 2.3; over/under 2.5: 1.79/2.02.