Matchup context
Home: Elche CF — 18th (P7 W1 D2 L4, GF 11 GA 17, 5 pts, form WLDLL). Last five: A RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 3-1 (W), H Real Madrid CF 2-3 (L), A Athletic Club 1-1 (D), H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L), A Real Racing Club de Santander 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.06, defence 1.25 from 20 matches.
Away: RC Celta de Vigo — 15th (P7 W1 D4 L2, GF 8 GA 6, 7 pts, form WDDDL). Last five: H Real Racing Club de Santander 5-0 (W), H Málaga CF 1-1 (D), A Getafe CF 1-1 (D), A Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0-0 (D), H Athletic Club 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.99, defence 0.90 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-03 RC Celta de Vigo 3-1 Elche CF; 2025-09-28 Elche CF 2-1 RC Celta de Vigo.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.52 vs 1.43; home 39.8% · draw 24.5% · away 35.7%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 56.7%; both teams to score 59.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 20 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-10 11:17 UTC): home 2.78 · draw 3.3 · away 2.6; over/under 2.5: 2.01/1.81.