Matchup context
Home: Real Racing Club de Santander — 16th (P7 W2 D1 L4, GF 11 GA 21, 7 pts, form LLWLW). Last five: A RC Celta de Vigo 0-5 (L), A FC Barcelona 2-7 (L), H Deportivo Alavés 2-1 (W), A Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2-3 (L), H Elche CF 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 1.08, defence 1.68 from 7 matches.
Away: Valencia CF — 20th (P7 W1 D1 L5, GF 4 GA 13, 4 pts, form LWLLL). Last five: H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L), A Deportivo Alavés 1-0 (W), A Sevilla FC 0-1 (L), H FC Barcelona 0-5 (L), A RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.87, defence 1.13 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.94 vs 1.68; home 44.4% · draw 21.7% · away 33.9%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 70.1%; both teams to score 69.7%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 20 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-10 17:17 UTC): home 2.33 · draw 3.5 · away 2.95; over/under 2.5: 1.685/2.15.