Matchup context
Home: AFC Bournemouth — 19th (P6 W0 D3 L3, GF 7 GA 13, 3 pts, form LLDDD). Last five: A Chelsea FC 1-5 (L), H Liverpool FC 0-1 (L), H Brentford FC 2-2 (D), A Newcastle United FC 2-2 (D), H Everton FC 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 0.93, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.
Away: Sunderland AFC — 18th (P6 W1 D1 L4, GF 6 GA 12, 4 pts, form LLLDW). Last five: H Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-2 (L), A Manchester City FC 3-5 (L), H Arsenal FC 0-2 (L), A Brentford FC 1-1 (D), H Fulham FC 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.86, defence 1.20 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-28 AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland AFC; 2025-11-29 Sunderland AFC 3-2 AFC Bournemouth.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.72 vs 1.10; home 51.8% · draw 23.8% · away 24.4%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 53.6%; both teams to score 54.8%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-17 11:17 UTC): home 2.1 · draw 3.5 · away 3.45; over/under 2.5: 1.865/1.935.