Matchup context
Home: Valencia CF — 19th (P9 W1 D3 L5, GF 6 GA 15, 6 pts, form DDLWL). Last five: H Athletic Club 0-0 (D), A Real Racing Club de Santander 2-2 (D), H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L), A Deportivo Alavés 1-0 (W), A Sevilla FC 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.83, defence 1.07 from 20 matches.
Away: Villarreal CF — 12th (P9 W2 D3 L4, GF 13 GA 13, 9 pts, form DLWWL). Last five: H Elche CF 0-0 (D), A Real Madrid CF 0-1 (L), H Levante UD 3-1 (W), A Málaga CF 3-1 (W), H Real Betis Balompié 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.14, defence 0.97 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-22 Villarreal CF 2-1 Valencia CF; 2025-10-25 Valencia CF 0-2 Villarreal CF.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.30 vs 1.42; home 34.5% · draw 25.6% · away 39.9%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 51.3%; both teams to score 55.3%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-23 05:17 UTC): home 3.2 · draw 3.6 · away 2.15; over/under 2.5: 1.7/2.12.