Matchup context
Home: FC Internazionale Milano — 1st (P7 W6 D1 L0, GF 21 GA 9, 19 pts, form WWDWW). Last five: A Bologna FC 1909 3-1 (W), H Parma Calcio 1913 3-0 (W), A AS Roma 2-2 (D), H Udinese Calcio 5-3 (W), H SSC Napoli 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 1.77, defence 0.98 from 20 matches.
Away: ACF Fiorentina — 18th (P7 W1 D1 L5, GF 8 GA 17, 4 pts, form LLDWL). Last five: H Como 1907 1-3 (L), A Genoa CFC 1-2 (L), H SSC Napoli 1-1 (D), A Venezia FC 4-2 (W), H Torino FC 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.88, defence 1.21 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-22 ACF Fiorentina 1-1 FC Internazionale Milano; 2025-10-29 FC Internazionale Milano 3-0 ACF Fiorentina.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.83 vs 1.03; home 74.6% · draw 14.5% · away 10.9%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 74.1%; both teams to score 60.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC): home 1.35 · draw 5.55 · away 7.89; over/under 2.5: 1.4/2.88.