Matchup context
Home: Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 4th (P7 W4 D1 L2, GF 16 GA 12, 13 pts, form LWWWD). Last five: A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0-3 (L), H SC Freiburg 2-1 (W), A 1. FSV Mainz 05 4-3 (W), H RB Leipzig 2-0 (W), A FC Augsburg 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 1.19, defence 1.00 from 20 matches.
Away: VfB Stuttgart — 15th (P7 W2 D0 L5, GF 10 GA 13, 6 pts, form LLWLL). Last five: H Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-3 (L), A Hamburger SV 0-1 (L), A SC Paderborn 07 2-0 (W), H Borussia Dortmund 0-1 (L), A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-09 VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen; 2026-01-10 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-4 VfB Stuttgart.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.28 vs 1.61; home 52.8% · draw 20% · away 27.2%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 74.6%; both teams to score 71.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-30 17:17 UTC): home 1.78 · draw 4.4 · away 3.815; over/under 2.5: 1.3/3.45.