Matchup context
Home: SV Werder Bremen — 6th (P7 W3 D3 L1, GF 15 GA 14, 12 pts, form WDDWD). Last five: A 1. FSV Mainz 05 3-2 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 2-2 (D), A Borussia Dortmund 2-2 (D), H FC Augsburg 3-2 (W), A 1. FC Köln 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.00, defence 1.07 from 20 matches.
Away: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — 10th (P7 W3 D0 L4, GF 14 GA 14, 9 pts, form WWLLW). Last five: H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-0 (W), A Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 (W), H Hamburger SV 2-3 (L), A SC Paderborn 07 1-3 (L), H VfB Stuttgart 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.05, defence 1.12 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-09 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 SV Werder Bremen; 2026-01-27 SV Werder Bremen 0-2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.08 vs 1.62; home 48.6% · draw 21.1% · away 30.3%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 71.4%; both teams to score 70.1%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-30 17:17 UTC): home 2.76 · draw 3.9 · away 2.28; over/under 2.5: 1.4/2.92.