Matchup context
Home: RB Leipzig — 10th (P2 W1 D0 L1, GF 4 GA 3, 3 pts, form LW). Last five: A SV Werder Bremen 1-3 (L), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-0 (W), A SC Freiburg 1-4 (L), H FC St. Pauli 1910 2-1 (W), A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-4 (L). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 0.98 from 20 matches.
Away: Hamburger SV — 17th (P2 W0 D0 L2, GF 0 GA 7, 0 pts, form LL). Last five: H 1. FSV Mainz 05 0-5 (L), A Borussia Dortmund 0-2 (L), A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-1 (D), H SC Freiburg 3-2 (W), A Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.78, defence 1.13 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-01 Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig; 2025-10-18 RB Leipzig 2-1 Hamburger SV.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.31 vs 1.11; home 64.1% · draw 18.9% · away 17%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 66.4%; both teams to score 60.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-12 11:17 UTC): home 1.35 · draw 5.5 · away 7.5; over/under 2.5: 1.39/2.95.