Matchup context
Home: Brighton & Hove Albion FC — 5th (P4 W2 D1 L1, GF 13 GA 5, 7 pts, form WDLW). Last five: A Coventry City FC 5-0 (W), H Leeds United FC 1-1 (D), A Chelsea FC 3-4 (L), H Aston Villa FC 4-0 (W), H Manchester United FC 0-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.27, defence 0.89 from 20 matches.
Away: Arsenal FC — 1st (P4 W4 D0 L0, GF 8 GA 1, 12 pts, form WWWW). Last five: A Sunderland AFC 2-0 (W), H Chelsea FC 2-1 (W), A Aston Villa FC 1-0 (W), H Coventry City FC 3-0 (W), A Crystal Palace FC 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.24, defence 0.59 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-04 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-1 Arsenal FC; 2025-12-27 Arsenal FC 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.15 vs 1.37; home 31.5% · draw 26.7% · away 41.8%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 46.2%; both teams to score 51%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 4.9 · draw 4 · away 1.69; over/under 2.5: 1.74/2.12.