Matchup context
Home: AS Roma — 1st (P4 W4 D0 L0, GF 12 GA 1, 12 pts, form WWWW). Last five: A Torino FC 2-0 (W), H Atalanta BC 2-1 (W), A US Lecce 4-0 (W), H ACF Fiorentina 4-0 (W), A Hellas Verona FC 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.63, defence 0.74 from 20 matches.
Away: FC Internazionale Milano — 2nd (P4 W4 D0 L0, GF 13 GA 6, 12 pts, form WWWW). Last five: H Udinese Calcio 5-3 (W), H SSC Napoli 3-2 (W), A Cagliari Calcio 1-0 (W), H AC Monza 4-1 (W), A Bologna FC 1909 3-3 (D). Rating: attack 1.81, defence 1.01 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-05 FC Internazionale Milano 5-2 AS Roma; 2025-10-18 AS Roma 0-1 FC Internazionale Milano.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.13 vs 1.59; home 50.4% · draw 20.8% · away 28.8%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 71.8%; both teams to score 70.1%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 17:17 UTC): home 2.635 · draw 3.445 · away 2.6; over/under 2.5: 1.62/2.28.