Matchup context
Home: Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 10th (P3 W1 D1 L1, GF 8 GA 5, 4 pts, form DWL). Last five: A FC Augsburg 2-2 (D), H 1. FC Union Berlin 4-0 (W), A SV 07 Elversberg 2-3 (L), H Hamburger SV 1-1 (D), A VfB Stuttgart 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.23, defence 0.92 from 20 matches.
Away: RB Leipzig — 7th (P3 W2 D0 L1, GF 9 GA 3, 6 pts, form WLW). Last five: H Hamburger SV 5-0 (W), A SV Werder Bremen 1-3 (L), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-0 (W), A SC Freiburg 1-4 (L), H FC St. Pauli 1910 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.23, defence 0.89 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-02 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig; 2025-12-20 RB Leipzig 1-3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.02 vs 1.65; home 46.7% · draw 21.4% · away 31.9%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 70.8%; both teams to score 70%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-19 17:17 UTC): home 1.97 · draw 4.11 · away 3.25; over/under 2.5: 1.34/3.25.