Matchup context
Home: Leeds United FC — 6th (P4 W2 D2 L0, GF 7 GA 3, 8 pts, form WDDW). Last five: H Newcastle United FC 4-1 (W), A Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1-1 (D), H Brentford FC 1-1 (D), A Nottingham Forest FC 1-0 (W), A West Ham United 0-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.01, defence 0.82 from 20 matches.
Away: Crystal Palace FC — 17th (P4 W1 D0 L3, GF 6 GA 11, 3 pts, form LWLL). Last five: H Ipswich Town FC 2-3 (L), A Fulham FC 3-2 (W), H Manchester City FC 1-4 (L), A Everton FC 0-2 (L), H Arsenal FC 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.94, defence 1.34 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-15 Crystal Palace FC 0-0 Leeds United FC; 2025-12-20 Leeds United FC 4-1 Crystal Palace FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.08 vs 0.95; home 63.5% · draw 20.2% · away 16.2%; most likely score 2-0; over 2.5 goals 58.4%; both teams to score 53.7%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-19 17:17 UTC): home 1.73 · draw 3.9 · away 4.75; over/under 2.5: 1.7/2.1.