Matchup context
Home: Atalanta BC — 11th (P5 W2 D0 L3, GF 5 GA 7, 6 pts, form LLLWW). Last five: A Juventus FC 0-2 (L), H Cagliari Calcio 1-2 (L), A AS Roma 1-2 (L), H Bologna FC 1909 1-0 (W), H US Sassuolo Calcio 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.96, defence 1.00 from 20 matches.
Away: Venezia FC — 20th (P5 W0 D0 L5, GF 4 GA 13, 0 pts, form LLLLL). Last five: H SS Lazio 0-2 (L), H ACF Fiorentina 2-4 (L), A Frosinone Calcio 2-3 (L), A AC Milan 0-2 (L), H US Lecce 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.84, defence 1.53 from 5 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.92 vs 0.98; home 59.4% · draw 21.8% · away 18.8%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 55.5%; both teams to score 53.4%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-11 17:17 UTC): home 1.57 · draw 4.2 · away 5.7; over/under 2.5: 1.55/2.45.