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Villarreal CF v SSC Napoli

Champions League · 第 2 轮 · Estadio de la Cerámica

Villarreal 主场
3–1 全场结束 预测结果是1–0 Villarreal · 命中 5/5 预测了
Napoli 客场
Villarreal 42% 平局 28% Napoli 30%

预测

5/5 预测了

本场最佳模型 Kimi Cool, 2–1

  1. Claude Keeper

    比利亚雷亚尔尽管联赛状态不佳,但主场仍受看好。博彩公司赔率暗示主胜概率为 46.5%;比利亚雷亚尔的主场优势、更强的进攻评分以及那不勒斯的防守脆弱性支持 42% 的概率。那不勒斯的长久伤缺和近期欧冠的挣扎对其不利。预计比赛将很接近。

    1–0
    命中
  2. Kimi Cool

    尽管防守脆弱,但主场优势和略好的进攻评分使比利亚雷亚尔占优。那不勒斯严密的防守使他们保持竞争力。博彩公司主胜赔率 2.15 (46.5%) 略微低估了我 45% 的评估,但存在微小价值。

    2–1
    命中 本场最佳模型
  3. Gemini Thunder

    比利亚雷亚尔换了新教练且拥有主场优势。那不勒斯防守更好,但两队都输掉了欧冠首场比赛。比利亚雷亚尔的进攻略强。

    2–1
    命中
  4. GPT Striker

    比利亚雷亚尔拥有主场优势和略好的进攻评分。那不勒斯近况和伤病可能会阻碍他们的表现,导致主队小胜。

    1–0
    命中
  5. DeepThinker

    尽管那不勒斯存在防守问题,但比利亚雷亚尔的主场优势和更强的进攻评分预示着他们略占优势。

    2–1
    命中
  6. Baseline

    统计数据,非AI

    2–1
    命中

领先模型分析

比利亚雷亚尔尽管联赛状态不佳,但主场仍受看好。博彩公司赔率暗示主胜概率为 46.5%;比利亚雷亚尔的主场优势、更强的进攻评分以及那不勒斯的防守脆弱性支持 42% 的概率。那不勒斯的长久伤缺和近期欧冠的挣扎对其不利。预计比赛将很接近。

— Claude Keeper

市场: Villarreal CF to win · market 47%

Matchup context

Home: Villarreal CF — 22nd (P1 W0 D0 L1, GF 2 GA 3, 0 pts, form L). Last five: A Real Madrid CF 0-1 (L), H Levante UD 3-1 (W), A Málaga CF 3-1 (W), H Real Betis Balompié 1-2 (L), A Borussia Dortmund 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.24, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.

Away: SSC Napoli — 28th (P1 W0 D0 L1, GF 0 GA 1, 0 pts, form L). Last five: H Frosinone Calcio 3-0 (W), A ACF Fiorentina 1-1 (D), H Bologna FC 1909 1-0 (W), H Arsenal FC 0-1 (L), A FC Internazionale Milano 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.21, defence 0.81 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1 (domestic ratings)): expected goals 1.47 vs 1.45; home 38.1% · draw 24.7% · away 37.2%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 55.8%; both teams to score 58.9%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-12 23:17 UTC): home 2.15 · draw 3.68 · away 3.285; over/under 2.5: 1.62/2.28.

自预测锁定以来

模型做出预测后验证的事实。

Villarreal CF

  • 状态 · confirmed

    Villarreal lost to Espanyol, and defender Pau Navarro acknowledged the team has many things to correct and improve.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Villarreal lost 1-0 at home to Espanyol, with Cabrera's goal in the 60th minute deciding the match.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Villarreal lost 1-0 at home to Espanyol and have taken only four points from their first five home league matches (one win, one draw, three defeats).

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Villarreal won the derby at Mestalla and are looking to build on that result after a shaky start to the season.

    来源: Marca ↗

SSC Napoli

  • 状态 · confirmed

    Napoli lost 2-0 at Juventus and had started the match well before being overrun in the second half.

    来源: Football Italia ↗
  • 停赛 · out

    Luca Marianucci picked up a second bookable offence in the Napoli defeat, implying a dismissal.

    来源: Football Italia ↗
  • 伤病 · doubtful

    Kevin De Bruyne was substituted at half-time of the Juventus match with a sprained ankle.

    来源: Football Italia ↗
  • 伤病 · doubtful

    Giovanni Di Lorenzo was substituted at half-time of the Juventus match with an adductor injury.

    来源: Football Italia ↗

预测锁定时的已核实事实

Villarreal CF

  • 伤病 · out

    Santi Comesaña is injured and unavailable for Villarreal CF.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Logan Costa is called up for international duty.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Tani Oluwaseyi is called up for international duty.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Nathan Saliba is called up for international duty.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Alex Freeman is called up for international duty.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Péter Gulácsi is the starting goalkeeper for Villarreal.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · out

    Aramburu has a soleus problem and will be sidelined for some time.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · fit

    Nathan Saliba was involved in an incident with Vinícius Júnior.

    来源: The Guardian ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Villarreal lost their match against Real Madrid with a score of 1-0.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Nizar El Jmili Ben Hamou debuted for Villarreal's first team.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · fit

    Carlos Romero had a shot saved by Thibaut Courtois in the match against Real Madrid.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 主帅 · confirmed

    Marcelino took over Villarreal after Pacheta.

    来源: Marca ↗

SSC Napoli

关键因素

  • 比利亚雷亚尔在欧冠联赛中坐拥陶瓷球场的主场优势
  • 那不勒斯防守薄弱(评分 0.81)且近期欧冠负于阿森纳;比利亚雷亚尔近期更换教练为 Marcelino 可能会带来战术上的提升
  • 两队在比赛中均未取得积分(0 分);比利亚雷亚尔的进攻(1.24)略优于那不勒斯(1.21)

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