Matchup context
Home: FC Schalke 04 — 13th (P5 W1 D2 L2, GF 4 GA 6, 5 pts, form LDWDL). Last five: A SC Freiburg 1-2 (L), H SV 07 Elversberg 0-0 (D), A 1. FC Union Berlin 3-1 (W), H FC Bayern München 0-0 (D), A FC Augsburg 0-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.77, defence 0.86 from 5 matches.
Away: 1. FSV Mainz 05 — 8th (P5 W2 D1 L2, GF 13 GA 10, 7 pts, form LWLWD). Last five: H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-4 (L), A Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3 (W), H Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 (L), A Hamburger SV 5-0 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 0-0 (D). Rating: attack 1.14, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.47 vs 1.42; home 38.7% · draw 24.8% · away 36.5%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 55.3%; both teams to score 58.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-16 11:17 UTC): home 3.05 · draw 3.6 · away 2.22; over/under 2.5: 1.6/2.3.