Matchup context
Home: Liverpool FC — 5th (P7 W3 D3 L1, GF 9 GA 8, 12 pts, form WLWDW). Last five: A Brentford FC 2-1 (W), H Manchester City FC 0-3 (L), A AFC Bournemouth 1-0 (W), H Fulham FC 0-0 (D), A Ipswich Town FC 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.06, defence 0.96 from 20 matches.
Away: Brighton & Hove Albion FC — 3rd (P7 W5 D1 L1, GF 23 GA 5, 16 pts, form WWWWD). Last five: H Crystal Palace FC 5-0 (W), A Sunderland AFC 2-0 (W), H Arsenal FC 3-0 (W), A Coventry City FC 5-0 (W), H Leeds United FC 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.48, defence 0.74 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-21 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2-1 Liverpool FC; 2025-12-13 Liverpool FC 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.21 vs 1.76; home 26.3% · draw 23.5% · away 50.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 56.9%; both teams to score 58%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC): home 2.1 · draw 3.85 · away 3.2; over/under 2.5: 1.53/2.48.
