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Athletic Club v Real Sociedad de Fútbol

La Liga · 第 11 轮 · San Mamés

Athletic Club 主场
2–1 全场结束 预测结果是2–1 Athletic Club · 命中 5/5 预测了
Real Sociedad 客场
Athletic Club 38% 平局 28% Real Sociedad 34%

预测

5/5 预测了

本场最佳模型 GPT Striker, 2–1 · 精确比分

  1. Claude Keeper

    毕尔巴鄂竞技主场作战占优，尽管Laporte停赛导致防守薄弱。皇家社会的实力评级和状态与之抗衡，但Aramburu、Beitia等关键球员缺阵，且客场限制了其威胁。博彩赔率低估了主场获胜概率：隐含概率46.5%，而模型给出42%，表明主队存在一定价值。预计比赛胶着，进球较少。

    1–0
    命中
  2. Kimi Cool

    毕尔巴鄂竞技的主场优势和4-0的绝地反击胜利，抵消了Laporte停赛和进攻乏力的影响。皇家社会状态强劲，但到圣马梅斯球场作客困难重重。主场赔率2.15隐含概率46.5%，我的42%预测较为接近，但考虑到防守稳固，仍存在一定价值。

    1–0
    命中
  3. Gemini Thunder

    毕尔巴鄂竞技主场战绩出色，且刚取得大胜，尽管Laporte缺阵。皇家社会状态极佳，但面临艰难的客场作战。主场优势和近期表现表明毕尔巴鄂竞技略占上风。

    2–1
    命中
  4. GPT Striker

    毕尔巴鄂竞技拥有可观的主场优势且近期表现强劲，而皇家社会在防守上暴露出弱点。Laporte缺阵可能影响毕尔巴鄂的防守，但他们很可能拿下本场比赛。

    2–1
    精确比分 本场最佳模型
  5. DeepThinker

    毕尔巴鄂竞技稳定的主场战绩和皇家社会的防守问题，表明主队可能以小比分取胜，尽管Laporte缺阵。

    1–0
    命中
  6. Baseline

    统计数据，非AI

    2–1
    命中

领先模型分析

毕尔巴鄂竞技主场战绩出色，且刚取得大胜，尽管Laporte缺阵。皇家社会状态极佳，但面临艰难的客场作战。主场优势和近期表现表明毕尔巴鄂竞技略占上风。

— Gemini Thunder

市场: Athletic Club to win · market 47%

Matchup context

Home: Athletic Club — 7th (P9 W3 D3 L3, GF 12 GA 9, 12 pts, form WLDDD). Last five: H Getafe CF 4-0 (W), A Levante UD 1-3 (L), A Valencia CF 0-0 (D), H Deportivo Alavés 0-0 (D), H Elche CF 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 0.97, defence 0.97 from 20 matches.

Away: Real Sociedad de Fútbol — 5th (P10 W6 D1 L3, GF 19 GA 18, 19 pts, form WWWWL). Last five: H Levante UD 2-1 (W), A Málaga CF 5-2 (W), H RC Deportivo La Coruña 3-2 (W), A Valencia CF 3-2 (W), H Club Atlético de Madrid 0-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.27, defence 1.23 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-01 Athletic Club 1-1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol; 2025-11-01 Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3-2 Athletic Club.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.91 vs 1.44; home 48.8% · draw 22.2% · away 29%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 65%; both teams to score 64.9%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 20 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-31 23:17 UTC): home 2.15 · draw 3.655 · away 3.225; over/under 2.5: 1.67/2.16.

自预测锁定以来

模型做出预测后验证的事实。

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

  • 状态 · confirmed

    Real Sociedad lost away at San Mamés to Athletic Club in the derby, after a penalty against Jon Aramburu that the club says was not a foul and that VAR did not review.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Real Sociedad's match at San Mamés was decided by a penalty, awarded against Jon Aramburu after a challenge with Nico Williams, which coach Matarazzo considers wrong because he believes Aramburu touched the ball first.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Real Sociedad lost the derby to Athletic Club after entering the match on four consecutive wins.

    来源: Marca ↗

预测锁定时的已核实事实

Athletic Club

  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Robert Navarro scored after an assist from Iñaki Williams.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 转会 · confirmed

    Maroan joined Athletic Club in the winter transfer market of 2025 from Alavés for approximately 4 million euros.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Álex Padilla has been called up for international duty with Mexico.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · out

    Jesús Areso was not the starting right-back for Athletic Club against Alavés.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · out

    Hugo Rincón was not the starting right-back for Athletic Club against Alavés.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · out

    Yuri Berchiche was not the starting right-back for Athletic Club against Alavés.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Unai Simón played in goal for Spain in the 2026 World Cup.

    来源: BBC Sport ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Aymeric Laporte was a key cornerstone of Spain's defence in the 2026 World Cup, which conceded just one goal in eight matches.

    来源: BBC Sport ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Mikel Oyarzabal has scored 18 goals in his past 20 Spain appearances.

    来源: BBC Sport ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Martin Zubimendi made a positive impact from the bench in both the Euro 2024 and World Cup finals for Spain.

    来源: BBC Sport ↗
  • 停赛 · out

    Aymeric Laporte is out due to suspension.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · out

    Gorka Guruzeta is still injured.

    来源: Marca ↗

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

  • 转会 · confirmed

    Mamadou Sarr is a new signing for Real Sociedad.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 转会 · confirmed

    Héctor Fort is a new signing for Real Sociedad.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · fit

    Ochieng's arm was in an open, separated, and unnatural position when the ball touched his thigh, which the CTA deemed a clear penalty.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 转会 · confirmed

    Carlos Soler signed for Real Sociedad last season.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Yangel Herrera won a penalty for Real Sociedad.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · out

    Jon Aramburu is out injured for Real Sociedad.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · out

    Luken Beitia suffered a left ankle sprain during training.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 转会 · confirmed

    Real Sociedad decided to sell Brais Méndez in the summer to bet on Luka Sučić as the attacking midfielder.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Luka Sučić was included in Matarazzo's starting lineup and showed motivation and participation in both attack and defense.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Sergio Gómez is consolidated as the starting left-back.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · out

    Pablo Marín received a penalty and a red card.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 主帅 · confirmed

    Pellegrino Matarazzo has had a positive first nine months as manager, winning a title, reaching Europe, and achieving fifth place in the league.

    来源: Marca ↗

关键因素

  • 毕尔巴鄂竞技主场状态出色（WLDDD）
  • 皇家社会近期连胜态势（WWWWL）
  • Aymeric Laporte为毕尔巴鄂竞技停赛

来自俱乐部

比赛期间的官方俱乐部视频。

HIGHLIGHTS | LaLiga Hypermotion | J12 | Sanse 1-0 Girona FC | Zubieta | Real Sociedad Real Sociedad TV ·

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