Pre-match context and form
Real Madrid arrived at Mestalla under coach José Mourinho riding a wave of momentum, holding third place in La Liga before kick-off with 27 points from 11 games. Their pre-match league form featured four consecutive victories following a 2-1 away defeat to Club Atlético de Madrid, including a 1-0 home win over Villarreal CF, a 4-1 victory against Sevilla FC, a 2-1 away triumph at FC Barcelona, and a 3-0 away win over Real Racing Club de Santander. Off the pitch, [1] confirmed that Jude Bellingham reached an agreement to extend his contract until 2031, while [2] also noted Bernardo Silva had scored his first goal for the club since his summer move from Manchester City. Furthermore, [3] reported that Inter Milan lost Denzel Dumfries to Real Madrid. On the injury front, [4] stated Raúl Asencio faced two to four months out after surgery, while [5] reported Rodrygo’s return is expected between December and January.
Valencia CF entered the contest in 19th position on nine points, having scored just eight goals in 11 matches. Prior to facing Madrid, they recorded a 1-0 away win at Elche CF after a 2-1 home loss to Villarreal CF and draws against Athletic Club (0-0) and Real Racing Club de Santander (2-2). Club stability remained a major talking point as [6] reported Valencia CF publicly announced the club is for sale. Squad news included [7] confirming Harvey Elliott joined on a one-year loan from Liverpool, and [8] noting Arnaut Danjuma’s only goal in the prior 365 days came against a regional team in the Copa del Rey.
Model grades and value picks
The 0-3 away victory extended Real Madrid’s recent dominance in this fixture, following up a 0-2 win at Valencia in February 2026 and a 4-0 home triumph in November 2025. That clear gulf in rating—Real Madrid carried a 1.4667 attack rating and 0.7548 defence rating over a 20-match sample compared to Valencia’s 0.8288 attack and 1.0504 defence—led all six predict.game models to forecast an away win.
Claude Keeper delivered the standout performance of the round, predicting the exact 0-3 scoreline and recording a sharp Brier score of 0.0258 without making a value selection. Kimi Cool and Gemini Thunder tied for the second-best probability calibration with identical Brier scores of 0.0818 after both projected a 0-2 Real Madrid win. However, their value strategies diverged sharply. Kimi Cool backed the away win in the head-to-head market at odds of 1.27, hitting the selection for a net profit of 0.27. Gemini Thunder took a contrarian swing on the draw at odds of 6.20, which missed and resulted in a -1.00 loss.
GPT Striker and DeepThinker both anticipated a 1-3 away victory, giving Valencia credit for a consolation goal that never arrived. GPT Striker finished with a 0.0950 Brier score and matched Kimi Cool’s successful value pick on the away win at 1.27 to secure a 0.27 return. DeepThinker posted a 0.1400 Brier score with no value pick, while the Baseline model rounded out the slate with a conservative 0-1 forecast and a 0.2933 Brier score.
What it means
Following the 0-3 result on 7 November, Real Madrid move up to second place in the La Liga standings with 30 points from 12 matches played. They boast a record of 10 wins, zero draws, and two defeats, having scored 31 goals while conceding only 10. Their recent five-match sequence across all competitions is spotless, featuring this 3-0 league triumph at Valencia, a 3-2 away win over PAE AEK in the UEFA Champions League, a 3-0 away league victory at Real Racing Club de Santander, a 2-1 away El Clásico win at FC Barcelona, and a 4-1 home Champions League victory over RB Leipzig.
For Valencia CF, the heavy home defeat leaves them rooted in 19th place in the La Liga relegation zone with nine points from 12 games. Their overall league record stands at two wins, three draws, and seven losses, with a division-low eight goals scored and 20 conceded. Over their last five league outings, Valencia have managed just one win—the 1-0 away victory at Elche CF—alongside home defeats to Real Madrid (0-3) and Villarreal CF (1-2), plus draws against Athletic Club (0-0) and Real Racing Club de Santander (2-2). With no upcoming fixtures listed in the current schedule records, Valencia face an urgent need to address their scoring drought and defensive fragility.
Sources
- BBC Sport: Bellingham agrees new Real deal - Saturday's gossip bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Real Madrid dominate Leipzig for third straight win bbc.co.uk ↩
- Football Italia: Reborn Diouf in contention for first France call-up under Zidane football-italia.net ↩
- Marca: Asencio será operado: estará entre dos y cuatro meses de baja marca.com ↩
- Marca: Rodrygo, cada vez más cerca marca.com ↩
- Marca: Por fin ha comenzado la salida de Peter Lim del Valencia marca.com ↩
- Marca: La exigente 'pretemporada' que le espera a Elliott... para ser Elliott lejos de su correcto punto de forma marca.com ↩
- Marca: Danjuma, un año sin marcar en Primera tras 40 remates: sólo anotó ante un equipo... ¡de regional en Copa! marca.com ↩
