Matchup context
Home: Valencia CF — 19th (P11 W2 D3 L6, GF 8 GA 17, 9 pts, form WLDDL). Last five: A Elche CF 1-0 (W), H Villarreal CF 1-2 (L), H Athletic Club 0-0 (D), A Real Racing Club de Santander 2-2 (D), H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.83, defence 1.05 from 20 matches.
Away: Real Madrid CF — 3rd (P11 W9 D0 L2, GF 28 GA 10, 27 pts, form WWWWL). Last five: A Real Racing Club de Santander 3-0 (W), A FC Barcelona 2-1 (W), H Sevilla FC 4-1 (W), H Villarreal CF 1-0 (W), A Club Atlético de Madrid 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.47, defence 0.75 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-08 Valencia CF 0-2 Real Madrid CF; 2025-11-01 Real Madrid CF 4-0 Valencia CF.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.00 vs 1.79; home 21% · draw 23.2% · away 55.8%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 52.7%; both teams to score 52.6%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC): home 9.5 · draw 6.2 · away 1.27; over/under 2.5: 1.43/2.83.