Matchup context
Home: Genoa CFC — 19th (P3 W0 D0 L3, GF 1 GA 7, 0 pts, form LLL). Last five: H Como 1907 1-4 (L), A SS Lazio 0-1 (L), H SSC Napoli 0-2 (L), A US Lecce 0-1 (L), H AC Milan 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.75, defence 1.15 from 20 matches.
Away: Frosinone Calcio — 7th (P3 W2 D0 L1, GF 6 GA 3, 6 pts, form WWL). Last five: H Venezia FC 3-2 (W), A ACF Fiorentina 3-0 (W), H Juventus FC 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.24, defence 0.95 from 3 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 0.91 vs 1.68; home 20.2% · draw 24.2% · away 55.6%; most likely score 0-1; over 2.5 goals 47.7%; both teams to score 48.4%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 11:17 UTC): home 2.135 · draw 3.355 · away 3.5; over/under 2.5: 1.925/1.85.