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Genoa CFC v Frosinone Calcio

Serie A · Matchday 4 · Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Genoa Home
1–1 Full time The call was 0–1 Frosinone · Miss 0 of 5 called it
Frosinone Away
Genoa 20% Draw 24% Frosinone 56%

The calls

0 of 5 called it

Nobody called it

  1. Claude Keeper

    Genoa's catastrophic start (0 points, -6 GD) contrasts sharply with Frosinone's promotion-season momentum (6 pts, +3 GD). Frosinone's attack (1.24) exploits Genoa's weak defence (1.15 rating, 7 GA in 3 matches). Away odds undervalue the visitor.

    1–2
    Miss
  2. Kimi Cool

    Genoa's poor start (0 pts, 1-7 GD) is priced too pessimistically. Home advantage at Ferraris, superior historical attack rating over 20 matches, and Frosinone's small sample size (3 games) suggest regression. Value on home win.

    2–1
    Miss
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Frosinone's strong start to the season and superior attacking form, coupled with Genoa's struggles and poor defensive record, make an away win the most probable outcome. Genoa has lost all three games.

    1–2
    Miss
  4. GPT Striker

    Frosinone has shown better form and attacking capability compared to Genoa, who are struggling defensively and offensively. The probabilities reflect Frosinone's higher likelihood of winning.

    1–2
    Miss
  5. DeepThinker

    Genoa's home advantage and slight edge in ratings offset their poor form. Frosinone's attack is strong but lacks historical data.

    1–0
    Miss
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    0–1
    Miss

What the lead model saw

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 0.91 vs 1.68, outcome probabilities 20.2/24.2/55.6.

— Baseline

Matchup context

Home: Genoa CFC — 19th (P3 W0 D0 L3, GF 1 GA 7, 0 pts, form LLL). Last five: H Como 1907 1-4 (L), A SS Lazio 0-1 (L), H SSC Napoli 0-2 (L), A US Lecce 0-1 (L), H AC Milan 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.75, defence 1.15 from 20 matches.

Away: Frosinone Calcio — 7th (P3 W2 D0 L1, GF 6 GA 3, 6 pts, form WWL). Last five: H Venezia FC 3-2 (W), A ACF Fiorentina 3-0 (W), H Juventus FC 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.24, defence 0.95 from 3 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 0.91 vs 1.68; home 20.2% · draw 24.2% · away 55.6%; most likely score 0-1; over 2.5 goals 47.7%; both teams to score 48.4%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 11:17 UTC): home 2.135 · draw 3.355 · away 3.5; over/under 2.5: 1.925/1.85.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Genoa CFC

Frosinone Calcio

  • Form · confirmed

    Frosinone beat Torino 2-0 to record a fifth consecutive home league win.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Injury · out

    Florian Grillitsch was the only Frosinone absentee for the match against Torino.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Frosinone have scored 22 goals in nine Serie A games and 13 in their last three matches (4-4 draw with Atalanta, 4-2 win over Sassuolo, 5-1 win over Lecce).

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Frosinone beat Lecce 5-1 to climb to sixth in Serie A, one point behind Milan, following a 4-4 draw with Atalanta the previous weekend.

    Source: Football Italia ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Genoa CFC

Frosinone Calcio

Key factors

  • Expected goals 0.91 vs 1.68 from attack and defence ratings
  • Over 2.5 goals 47.7%, both teams to score 48.4%
  • Most likely score 0-1 given the away win

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