Matchup context
Home: FC Augsburg — 4th (P4 W2 D1 L1, GF 11 GA 6, 7 pts, form LDWW). Last five: A SV Werder Bremen 2-3 (L), H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-2 (D), A Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 (W), H FC Schalke 04 3-0 (W), A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-4 (L). Rating: attack 1.13, defence 1.00 from 20 matches.
Away: FC Bayern München — 2nd (P4 W3 D1 L0, GF 14 GA 2, 10 pts, form WWDW). Last five: H 1. FC Union Berlin 7-0 (W), A SV 07 Elversberg 2-1 (W), A FC Schalke 04 0-0 (D), H VfB Stuttgart 5-1 (W), H 1. FC Köln 5-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.73, defence 0.77 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-24 FC Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg; 2025-08-30 FC Augsburg 2-3 FC Bayern München.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.60 vs 2.52; home 23.7% · draw 18.6% · away 57.7%; most likely score 1-2; over 2.5 goals 77.9%; both teams to score 73.4%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-09 11:17 UTC): home 11 · draw 8.55 · away 1.185; over/under 2.5: 1.15/5.47.