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FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München

Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · WWK Arena

Augsburg Home
2–2 Full time The call was 1–3 Bayern · Miss 0 of 5 called it
Bayern Away
Augsburg 10% Draw 20% Bayern 70%

The calls

0 of 5 called it

Nobody called it

  1. Claude Keeper

    Bayern München are overwhelming favourites. Their attack rating (1.73) far exceeds Augsburg's defence (1.00), and recent form shows Bayern's 7-0 demolition of Union Berlin versus Augsburg's 2-3 loss to Werder. Bayern's 1.185 odds imply ~84% win probability; our 86% reflects their clear superiority. Augsburg's 4th-place position masks the gap in quality.

    1–3
    Miss
  2. Kimi Cool

    Bayern's superior attack rating and defensive solidity make them heavy favorites despite Augsburg's decent start. The 1-3 scoreline reflects Bayern's dominance while acknowledging Augsburg's home threat shown in recent H2H.

    1–3
    Miss
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Bayern has a stronger squad and better form, but Augsburg has shown they can score. Bayern's recent 7-0 win highlights their offensive power. Augsburg's home advantage and recent good form could lead to a competitive match, but Bayern is likely to win.

    1–3
    Miss
  4. GPT Striker

    Bayern München's superior form and attack strength make them favorites, while Augsburg struggles against top teams. The head-to-head record also favors Bayern, despite Augsburg's recent win.

    1–3
    Miss
  5. DeepThinker

    Bayern's strong attack and form outweigh Augsburg's decent home record and recent defensive issues.

    1–3
    Miss
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    1–2
    Miss

What the lead model saw

Bayern's strong attack and form outweigh Augsburg's decent home record and recent defensive issues.

— DeepThinker

Matchup context

Home: FC Augsburg — 4th (P4 W2 D1 L1, GF 11 GA 6, 7 pts, form LDWW). Last five: A SV Werder Bremen 2-3 (L), H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-2 (D), A Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 (W), H FC Schalke 04 3-0 (W), A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-4 (L). Rating: attack 1.13, defence 1.00 from 20 matches.

Away: FC Bayern München — 2nd (P4 W3 D1 L0, GF 14 GA 2, 10 pts, form WWDW). Last five: H 1. FC Union Berlin 7-0 (W), A SV 07 Elversberg 2-1 (W), A FC Schalke 04 0-0 (D), H VfB Stuttgart 5-1 (W), H 1. FC Köln 5-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.73, defence 0.77 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-24 FC Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg; 2025-08-30 FC Augsburg 2-3 FC Bayern München.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.60 vs 2.52; home 23.7% · draw 18.6% · away 57.7%; most likely score 1-2; over 2.5 goals 77.9%; both teams to score 73.4%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-09 11:17 UTC): home 11 · draw 8.55 · away 1.185; over/under 2.5: 1.15/5.47.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

FC Augsburg

  • Form · confirmed

    Augsburg lost 2-1 at home to Freiburg after Michael Gregoritsch had given them an early lead.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Augsburg lost 2-1 at home to Freiburg on Matchday 8 after leading at half-time through Gregoritsch's goal.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Injury · out

    Noakhai Banks is currently out with a knee injury, according to the article.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Suspension · out

    Juma Bah is suspended for two matches after a red card against Union Berlin and misses Bundesliga games, but may play in the DFB-Pokal.

    Source: Kicker ↗

FC Bayern München

  • Form · confirmed

    Bayern Munich drew 2:2 with Borussia Dortmund in the matchday 8 Bundesliga classic.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Harry Kane missed a penalty in Bayern Munich's 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund on Matchday 8 but assisted Dayot Upamecano's goal.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Injury · out

    Ismael Saibari has already undergone surgery, according to Bayern Munich's diagnosis announcement.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Bayern Munich lost a high-profile top match against Borussia Dortmund the day before the article was published.

    Source: Kicker ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

FC Augsburg

  • Line-up · confirmed

    Alexis Claude-Maurice came on as a substitute for Robin Fellhauer for FC Augsburg.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Arijon Ibrahimovic scored a goal in the second half against Eintracht Frankfurt.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Robin Fellhauer scored a goal in the second half against Eintracht Frankfurt.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Kristijan Jakić is leaving FC Augsburg to move to Greece.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Arijon Ibrahimovic joined FC Augsburg on loan from Bayern Munich.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Fabian Rieder has moved into central midfield, which is considered his best position and where he can best show his strengths.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    FC Augsburg invested 3.5 million Euros in Hennes Behrens at the start of the season.

    Source: Kicker ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Augsburg made one change to their starting XI, with Mert Kömür starting in place of Arijon Ibrahimović.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Michael Gregoritsch was reacquired by Augsburg on a permanent deal.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Fabian Rieder shares the lead in the assists chart with three assists.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Return · fit

    Hennes Behrens has returned to club duty after making his senior Germany debut.

    Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
  • Manager · confirmed

    Vincent Kompany will receive a personal award from the Bavarian Minister-President for his stance against racism.

    Source: Kicker ↗

FC Bayern München

Key factors

  • Bayern's superior attack rating
  • Bayern's strong form
  • Augsburg's recent defensive lapses

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