Matchup context
Home: AS Roma — 3rd (P10 W7 D3 L0, GF 28 GA 10, 24 pts, form WWDWD). Last five: A Udinese Calcio 5-2 (W), H Cagliari Calcio 4-2 (W), A SSC Napoli 3-3 (D), H Genoa CFC 2-0 (W), A Como 1907 0-0 (D). Rating: attack 1.72, defence 0.87 from 20 matches.
Away: US Sassuolo Calcio — 17th (P10 W2 D2 L6, GF 16 GA 26, 8 pts, form LLLLD). Last five: H ACF Fiorentina 2-4 (L), H SS Lazio 2-6 (L), A Como 1907 0-2 (L), A Frosinone Calcio 2-4 (L), H AC Milan 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.07, defence 1.53 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-10 AS Roma 2-0 US Sassuolo Calcio; 2025-10-26 US Sassuolo Calcio 0-1 AS Roma.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 3.56 vs 1.15; home 81.2% · draw 10.7% · away 8.1%; most likely score 3-1; over 2.5 goals 84.7%; both teams to score 66.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC): home 1.29 · draw 6.15 · away 9; over/under 2.5: 1.35/3.15.
