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Valencia CF v Real Madrid CF

La Liga · Matchday 12 · Estadio de Mestalla

Valencia Home
0–3 Full time The call was 1–3 Real Madrid · Hit 5 of 5 called it
Real Madrid Away
Valencia 10% Draw 15% Real Madrid 75%

The calls

5 of 5 called it

Model of the match Claude Keeper, 0–3 · Exact score

  1. Claude Keeper

    Real Madrid's elite form, superior ratings, and recent dominance over Valencia make away victory overwhelming. Valencia's off-field turmoil, poor defensive record, and lack of attacking threat (0.83 rating) support a heavy Madrid win. Bookmaker odds slightly undervalue Madrid's chances.

    0–3
    Exact score Model of the match
  2. Kimi Cool

    Real Madrid dominate on every metric. Valencia's low attack rating and poor form against elite opposition suggests comfortable away win. Bookmaker odds 1.27 imply 78.7%, my 77% is close but slight value on away given Madrid's momentum.

    0–2
    Hit
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Real Madrid is in excellent form with a strong attack and defence, while Valencia struggles at the bottom. The head-to-head record also heavily favors Real Madrid. However, the draw odds offer value given the inherent unpredictability of football.

    0–2
    Hit
  4. GPT Striker

    Real Madrid is in excellent form and has a strong attacking record, while Valencia struggles defensively and offensively. The head-to-head results favor Madrid significantly.

    1–3
    Hit
  5. DeepThinker

    Real Madrid's superior form, attack, and recent dominance over Valencia suggest a likely away win, despite Valencia's home advantage.

    1–3
    Hit
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    0–1
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Real Madrid is in excellent form and has a strong attacking record, while Valencia struggles defensively and offensively. The head-to-head results favor Madrid significantly.

— GPT Striker

Market: Real Madrid CF to win · market 79%

Matchup context

Home: Valencia CF — 19th (P11 W2 D3 L6, GF 8 GA 17, 9 pts, form WLDDL). Last five: A Elche CF 1-0 (W), H Villarreal CF 1-2 (L), H Athletic Club 0-0 (D), A Real Racing Club de Santander 2-2 (D), H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.83, defence 1.05 from 20 matches.

Away: Real Madrid CF — 3rd (P11 W9 D0 L2, GF 28 GA 10, 27 pts, form WWWWL). Last five: A Real Racing Club de Santander 3-0 (W), A FC Barcelona 2-1 (W), H Sevilla FC 4-1 (W), H Villarreal CF 1-0 (W), A Club Atlético de Madrid 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.47, defence 0.75 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-08 Valencia CF 0-2 Real Madrid CF; 2025-11-01 Real Madrid CF 4-0 Valencia CF.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.00 vs 1.79; home 21% · draw 23.2% · away 55.8%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 52.7%; both teams to score 52.6%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC): home 9.5 · draw 6.2 · away 1.27; over/under 2.5: 1.43/2.83.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Valencia CF

  • Form · confirmed

    Valencia lost 2-0 to Real Madrid and were described by Varela as lacking conviction and belief.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Valencia trailed Real Madrid 0-2 at halftime of their match at Mestalla, according to the article.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Suspension · confirmed

    Gaya was sent off in the second half of the 0-3 home defeat to Real Madrid; the length of any ban is not stated in the article.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Valencia lost 0-3 at home to Real Madrid and have not yet won at Mestalla this season, according to Gaya.

    Source: Marca ↗

Real Madrid CF

  • Injury · out

    Kylian Mbappé is out of France's Nations League squad with a hamstring injury.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Injury · out

    Kylian Mbappé will not play for France against Italy on Thursday due to a hamstring issue; France hope he will be available on Sunday.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Injury · out

    Aurélien Tchouameni was sent home from France's training camp because he was not fit enough to play on Thursday or Sunday.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Injury · out

    Aurélien Tchouameni is among the France players listed as unavailable for the Nations League match against Italy.

    Source: Football Italia ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Valencia CF

  • Transfer · confirmed

    Harvey Elliott joined Valencia on a one-year loan from Liverpool.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · out

    Arnaut Danjuma's last goal in the last 365 days was against a regional team in the Copa del Rey.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Valencia's starting line-up against Basel included Cañizares, Curro Torres, Ayala, Pellegrino, Fabio Aurelio, Albelda, Baraja, Aimar, Angulo, Vicent and Carew.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    José Luis Gayà is the captain of Valencia CF.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Harvey Elliott's expulsion was described as absurd and ridiculous by coach Javier Aguirre.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Valencia CF has publicly announced that the club is for sale.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Arnau Martinez started in the three games he coincided with Corberán.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Ryunosuke Sato started in the first three league games under Corberán.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Pablo Maffeo is a regular starter at right-back.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Rodrigo Gamón will play for the reserve team if he does not get minutes with Valencia CF.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Otorbi will play for the reserve team if he does not get minutes with Valencia CF.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Iker Córdoba will play for the reserve team if he does not get minutes with Valencia CF.

    Source: Marca ↗

Real Madrid CF

  • Transfer · confirmed

    Rajado debuted for Real Madrid C.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Denzel Dumfries was lost to Real Madrid by Inter Milan.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Return · fit

    Rodrygo's return is expected between December and January.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Raúl Asencio is expected to be out for two to four months following surgery.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Oscar Naasei is a summer signing for Castilla from Granada.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Jude Bellingham has reached an agreement to extend his contract with Real Madrid until 2031.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Injury · out

    Raúl Asencio is injured and unavailable for Real Madrid.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Enzo Alves had a month-long injury layoff earlier in the season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Denzel Dumfries went to Real Madrid.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Bernardo Silva scored his first goal for Real Madrid since moving from Manchester City in the summer.

    Source: BBC Sport ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Brahim Diaz was in the starting line-up for Real Madrid CF.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Gonzalo was in the starting line-up for Real Madrid CF.

    Source: Marca ↗

Key factors

  • Real Madrid's strong form (WWWWL)
  • Valencia's poor attacking record (GF 8)
  • Recent head-to-head dominance by Real Madrid (4-0, 2-0)

From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

HIGHLIGHTS | Valencia CF 0-3 Real Madrid | LaLiga Real Madrid ·

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