Matchup context
Home: Real Sociedad de Fútbol — 5th (P11 W6 D1 L4, GF 20 GA 20, 19 pts, form LWWWW). Last five: A Athletic Club 1-2 (L), H Levante UD 2-1 (W), A Málaga CF 5-2 (W), H RC Deportivo La Coruña 3-2 (W), A Valencia CF 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 1.25, defence 1.21 from 20 matches.
Away: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — 14th (P10 W3 D3 L4, GF 15 GA 20, 12 pts, form WLDDW). Last five: H RC Celta de Vigo 3-0 (W), H Elche CF 0-3 (L), A Getafe CF 1-1 (D), A CA Osasuna 1-1 (D), H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.04, defence 1.10 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-26 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 3-3 Real Sociedad de Fútbol; 2025-10-05 Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0-1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.21 vs 1.47; home 54.5% · draw 20.3% · away 25.2%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 71%; both teams to score 68.4%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-07 17:17 UTC): home 1.72 · draw 4.1 · away 4.33; over/under 2.5: 1.57/2.385.