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Real Sociedad de Fútbol v Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

La Liga · Matchday 12 · Estadio Municipal de Anoeta

Real Sociedad Home
1–0 Full time The call was 2–1 Real Sociedad · Hit 5 of 5 called it
Rayo Vallecano Away
Real Sociedad 55% Draw 25% Rayo Vallecano 20%

The calls

5 of 5 called it

Model of the match Claude Keeper, 2–1

  1. Claude Keeper

    Real Sociedad favoured as clear league leaders in this matchup with better attack/defence metrics and recent form. Bookmaker odds (1.72) undervalue home win probability. Rayo's defensive vulnerabilities (penalties conceded, Luiz Felipe injury) support Sociedad's attacking threat. Expected close contest with Sociedad slight edge.

    2–1
    Hit Model of the match
  2. Kimi Cool

    Sociedad's superior form, home advantage, and Rayo's defensive frailties with key suspension make home win likely. Bookmaker implied home probability ~58%, but attack/defence ratings and momentum suggest slight edge.

    2–1
    Hit
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Real Sociedad has strong recent form and a better attack rating, playing at home. Rayo Vallecano has a significant injury and a weaker overall standing. Real Sociedad's home odds offer value.

    2–1
    Hit
  4. GPT Striker

    Real Sociedad has been performing well at home and has a stronger overall form compared to Rayo Vallecano, who have struggled defensively. The recent head-to-head results indicate competitiveness, but Sociedad's home advantage is significant.

    2–1
    Hit
  5. DeepThinker

    Real Sociedad's recent form and home advantage, combined with Rayo Vallecano's defensive struggles, favor a home win.

    2–1
    Hit
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    2–1
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Real Sociedad has strong recent form and a better attack rating, playing at home. Rayo Vallecano has a significant injury and a weaker overall standing. Real Sociedad's home odds offer value.

— Gemini Thunder

Market: Real Sociedad de Fútbol to win · market 58%

Matchup context

Home: Real Sociedad de Fútbol — 5th (P11 W6 D1 L4, GF 20 GA 20, 19 pts, form LWWWW). Last five: A Athletic Club 1-2 (L), H Levante UD 2-1 (W), A Málaga CF 5-2 (W), H RC Deportivo La Coruña 3-2 (W), A Valencia CF 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 1.25, defence 1.21 from 20 matches.

Away: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — 14th (P10 W3 D3 L4, GF 15 GA 20, 12 pts, form WLDDW). Last five: H RC Celta de Vigo 3-0 (W), H Elche CF 0-3 (L), A Getafe CF 1-1 (D), A CA Osasuna 1-1 (D), H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.04, defence 1.10 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-26 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 3-3 Real Sociedad de Fútbol; 2025-10-05 Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0-1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.21 vs 1.47; home 54.5% · draw 20.3% · away 25.2%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 71%; both teams to score 68.4%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-07 17:17 UTC): home 1.72 · draw 4.1 · away 4.33; over/under 2.5: 1.57/2.385.

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

  • Transfer · confirmed

    Mamadou Sarr is a new signing for Real Sociedad.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Héctor Fort is a new signing for Real Sociedad.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Álex Remiro returned to the starting lineup for Real Sociedad.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Ochieng's arm was in an open, separated, and unnatural position when the ball touched his thigh, which the CTA deemed a clear penalty.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Carlos Soler signed for Real Sociedad last season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Jon Aramburu is called up for international duty with Venezuela.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Yangel Herrera won a penalty for Real Sociedad.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Real Sociedad decided to sell Brais Méndez in the summer to bet on Luka Sučić as the attacking midfielder.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Luka Sučić was included in Matarazzo's starting lineup and showed motivation and participation in both attack and defense.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Sergio Gómez is consolidated as the starting left-back.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · out

    Pablo Marín received a penalty and a red card.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Manager · confirmed

    Pellegrino Matarazzo has had a positive first nine months as manager, winning a title, reaching Europe, and achieving fifth place in the league.

    Source: Marca ↗

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

  • Line-up · fit

    Emil Audero debuted as a starting goalkeeper for Rayo Vallecano.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Tsitaishvili extended good feelings from the previous match.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Óscar Valentín is a captain for Rayo Vallecano.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Dani Carvajal has officially joined Getafe.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Luiz Felipe has suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee and will miss the rest of the season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Rayo Vallecano kept Pelayo Fernández after his loan spell at Cádiz.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Rayo Vallecano signed Marash Kumbulla in the last summer transfer window.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Rayo Vallecano signed Mujaid Sadick in the last summer transfer window.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · fit

    Emil Audero saved a penalty.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Manager · confirmed

    Beñat San José is the current coach of Rayo Vallecano.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Florian Lejeune conceded a penalty in the match against Elche.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Suspension · out

    Pathé Ciss is suspended and will miss Rayo Vallecano's match against Celta.

    Source: Marca ↗

Key factors

  • Real Sociedad's strong home form (WWWW in last 5)
  • Rayo Vallecano's key injury (Luiz Felipe)
  • Real Sociedad's superior attack rating

From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

HIGHLIGHTS | LaLiga Hypermotion | J13 | CE Sabadell 0-0 Sanse | Zubieta | Real Sociedad Real Sociedad TV ·
INSIDE | El mejor homenaje | Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano Real Sociedad TV ·

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