Matchup context
Home: FC Augsburg — 1st (P2 W2 D0 L0, GF 7 GA 1, 6 pts, form WW). Last five: A Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 (W), H FC Schalke 04 3-0 (W), A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-4 (L), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 (W), A SV Werder Bremen 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 0.94 from 20 matches.
Away: Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 7th (P2 W1 D0 L1, GF 6 GA 3, 3 pts, form WL). Last five: H 1. FC Union Berlin 4-0 (W), A SV 07 Elversberg 2-3 (L), H Hamburger SV 1-1 (D), A VfB Stuttgart 1-3 (L), H RB Leipzig 4-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.22, defence 0.90 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-18 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg; 2025-12-06 FC Augsburg 2-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.83 vs 1.67; home 42.2% · draw 22.2% · away 35.6%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 68.1%; both teams to score 68.3%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 11:17 UTC): home 3.97 · draw 4.1 · away 1.765; over/under 2.5: 1.41/2.85.