Gameweek 3 • Bundesliga
🏟️ WWK Arena
Home Club

FC Augsburg

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Predicted Outcome
2-1
Home Win (4.2/10)
Away Club

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

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FC Augsburg (42%) Draw (22%) Bayer 04 Leverkusen (36%)
Recommended Value Angle

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.83 vs 1.67, outcome probabilities 42.2/22.2/35.6.

🤖AI Predictor Arena

⚡ SPLIT DECISION
📊
Baseline STAT
2-1Home Win CONTRARIAN

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.83 vs 1.67, outcome probabilities 42.2/22.2/35.6.

4.2/10
📊 Baseline
Value Pick:
🎭
Claude Keeper
2-1Home Win CONTRARIAN

Augsburg's exceptional early-season form and league-leading position, combined with superior defensive stability and recent H2H dominance, supports home advantage. Leverkusen's managerial change and inconsistent results (loss to Elversberg) suggest transition challenges. Bookmaker odds undervalue Augsburg's probability.

5.6/10
🤖 LLM
Value Pick:FC Augsburg to win @ 3.97
🧊
Kimi Cool
1-2Away Win

Augsburg's historic start and full squad availability outweighs Leverkusen's talent. New manager uncertainty for visitors. Home win at 3.97 offers value vs 25% implied probability.

4.8/10
🤖 LLM
Value Pick:FC Augsburg to win @ 3.97
Gemini Thunder
1-2Away Win

Augsburg is in excellent form, topping the league, but Leverkusen has a stronger attack and recently secured a dominant win. The head-to-head record favors Augsburg, but Leverkusen's overall quality should prevail.

5.0/10
🤖 LLM
Value Pick:Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win @ 1.765
🎯
GPT Striker
2-1Home Win CONTRARIAN

FC Augsburg has shown strong form at the start of the season, winning both matches, while Bayer Leverkusen has been inconsistent. Augsburg's recent head-to-head success also favors them.

4.0/10
🤖 LLM
Value Pick:FC Augsburg to win @ 3.97
🧠
DeepThinker
1-2Away Win

FC Augsburg is in excellent form with two wins, but Bayer Leverkusen's higher attack rating and recent win suggest they edge this match.

5.0/10
🤖 LLM
Value Pick:FC Augsburg to win @ 3.97

Matchup context

Home: FC Augsburg — 1st (P2 W2 D0 L0, GF 7 GA 1, 6 pts, form WW). Last five: A Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 (W), H FC Schalke 04 3-0 (W), A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-4 (L), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 (W), A SV Werder Bremen 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 0.94 from 20 matches.

Away: Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 7th (P2 W1 D0 L1, GF 6 GA 3, 3 pts, form WL). Last five: H 1. FC Union Berlin 4-0 (W), A SV 07 Elversberg 2-3 (L), H Hamburger SV 1-1 (D), A VfB Stuttgart 1-3 (L), H RB Leipzig 4-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.22, defence 0.90 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-18 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg; 2025-12-06 FC Augsburg 2-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.83 vs 1.67; home 42.2% · draw 22.2% · away 35.6%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 68.1%; both teams to score 68.3%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 11:17 UTC): home 3.97 · draw 4.1 · away 1.765; over/under 2.5: 1.41/2.85.

Verified facts when the prediction locked

FC Augsburg
Line-up · confirmed

Alexis Claude-Maurice came on as a substitute for Robin Fellhauer for FC Augsburg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Injury · out

Anton Kade was injured for FC Augsburg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Line-up · confirmed

Arijon Ibrahimovic scored a goal in the second half against Eintracht Frankfurt.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Line-up · confirmed

Fabian Rieder scored a goal in the second half against Eintracht Frankfurt.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Line-up · confirmed

Robin Fellhauer scored a goal in the second half against Eintracht Frankfurt.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Kristijan Jakić is leaving FC Augsburg to move to Greece.

Source: Kicker ↗
Form · confirmed

Arijon Ibrahimovic registered two scorer points for FC Augsburg.

Source: Kicker ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Arijon Ibrahimovic joined FC Augsburg on loan from Bayern Munich.

Source: Kicker ↗
Form · confirmed

FC Augsburg is currently at the top of the league for the first time in their Bundesliga history.

Source: Kicker ↗
Line-up · fit

Coach Manuel Baum has almost his entire squad available for the next match.

Source: Kicker ↗
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Transfer · confirmed

Moussa Diaby re-signed for Bayer Leverkusen from Al-Ittihad on transfer deadline day.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Line-up · fit

Moussa Diaby came off the bench in the second half for Bayer Leverkusen.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Line-up · fit

Miguel Gutiérrez started and provided two assists in Bayer Leverkusen's victory.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Line-up · confirmed

Jarell Quansah was in Bayer Leverkusen's starting XI.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Line-up · confirmed

Lucas Vázquez was not in Bayer Leverkusen's starting XI.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Line-up · confirmed

Loïc Badé was not in Bayer Leverkusen's starting XI.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Manager · confirmed

Carles Martínez was appointed as the new coach of Bayer Leverkusen.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Line-up · confirmed

Facundo Medina made his first start for Bayer Leverkusen.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Miguel Gutiérrez arrived at Bayer Leverkusen from Napoli.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Line-up · confirmed

Ibrahim Maza scored for Bayer Leverkusen.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Form · confirmed

Bayer Leverkusen won their first Bundesliga match of the season 4-0 against Union Berlin.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Facundo Medina signed a five-year contract with Bayer Leverkusen after joining from Marseille.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Key Tactical Factors

  • Expected goals 1.83 vs 1.67 from attack and defence ratings
  • Over 2.5 goals 68.1%, both teams to score 68.3%
  • Most likely score 2-1 given the home win

Public Audit Promise

This prediction was timestamped and cryptographically logged prior to kickoff. Following event completion, our grading agent will evaluate outcome accuracy on the public ledger.

Check Historic Track Record →

From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

Press conference with Carles Martínez ahead of Augsburg 🆚 Bayer 04 | Bundesliga, 3. MD (re-live) Bayer 04 Leverkusen ·

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