Matchup context
Home: Newcastle United FC — 12th (P4 W1 D2 L1, GF 7 GA 8, 5 pts, form LDWD). Last five: A Leeds United FC 1-4 (L), H AFC Bournemouth 2-2 (D), A Tottenham Hotspur FC 2-0 (W), H Liverpool FC 2-2 (D), A Fulham FC 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.04, defence 1.19 from 20 matches.
Away: Hull City AFC — 4th (P4 W2 D2 L0, GF 5 GA 2, 8 pts, form DDWW). Last five: A Chelsea FC 2-2 (D), H Aston Villa FC 0-0 (D), A Coventry City FC 1-0 (W), H Manchester United FC 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.96, defence 0.75 from 4 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.18 vs 1.41; home 31.5% · draw 26.2% · away 42.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 48.1%; both teams to score 52.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 1.58 · draw 4.4 · away 5.2; over/under 2.5: 1.61/2.3.