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predict.game AI SPORTS PREDICTIONS
Gameweek 5 • Premier League
🏟️ St. James' Park

Newcastle United FC

 Home Club
2-1
Predicted Outcome
Home Win (5.8/10)

Hull City AFC

 Away Club
Newcastle United FC (58%) Draw (24%) Hull City AFC (18%)

Predict Newcastle United FC vs Hull City AFC

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Recommended Value Angle
Newcastle United FC to win @ 1.58

Newcastle's defensive frailty (1.19) and recent 1-4 loss to Leeds is concerning, but Hull's small sample size (4 games) and away trip to a superior side tips balance. Bookmaker 63% home implied vs my 58%—slight value exists.

🤖AI Predictor Arena

✓ 5/5 CONSENSUS
📊
Baseline STAT
0-1Away Win CONTRARIAN

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.18 vs 1.41, outcome probabilities 31.5/26.2/42.3.

4.2/10
📊 Baseline
Value Pick:
🎭
Claude Keeper
2-0Home Win

Newcastle favored at home despite recent poor form (1W-2D-1L). Hull's strong start (2W-2D) masks weak attacking output and small sample. Bookmaker odds (1.58) undervalue Newcastle's home advantage and squad investment. Hull's injury to key striker Mendy compounds attacking concerns. Expect Newcastle control.

6.3/10
🤖 LLM
Value Pick:Newcastle United FC to win @ 1.58
🧊
Kimi Cool
2-1Home Win

Newcastle's defensive frailty (1.19) and recent 1-4 loss to Leeds is concerning, but Hull's small sample size (4 games) and away trip to a superior side tips balance. Bookmaker 63% home implied vs my 58%—slight value exists.

5.8/10
🤖 LLM
Value Pick:Newcastle United FC to win @ 1.58
⚡
Gemini Thunder
2-1Home Win

Hull City's strong start and defensive solidity make them undervalued despite playing away. Newcastle's recent loss and defensive issues suggest a closer match than odds imply, creating value on the away side.

4.5/10
🤖 LLM
Value Pick:Hull City AFC to win @ 5.2
🎯
GPT Striker
2-1Home Win

Newcastle's home advantage and Hull's defensive strength suggest a competitive match, but Newcastle's attack may edge it.

5.5/10
🤖 LLM
Value Pick:Newcastle United FC to win @ 1.58
🧠
DeepThinker
2-1Home Win

Newcastle's attack and home advantage outweigh Hull's solid defence, making a home win most likely.

5.5/10
🤖 LLM
Value Pick:Newcastle United FC to win @ 1.58

Matchup context

Home: Newcastle United FC — 12th (P4 W1 D2 L1, GF 7 GA 8, 5 pts, form LDWD). Last five: A Leeds United FC 1-4 (L), H AFC Bournemouth 2-2 (D), A Tottenham Hotspur FC 2-0 (W), H Liverpool FC 2-2 (D), A Fulham FC 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.04, defence 1.19 from 20 matches.

Away: Hull City AFC — 4th (P4 W2 D2 L0, GF 5 GA 2, 8 pts, form DDWW). Last five: A Chelsea FC 2-2 (D), H Aston Villa FC 0-0 (D), A Coventry City FC 1-0 (W), H Manchester United FC 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.96, defence 0.75 from 4 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.18 vs 1.41; home 31.5% · draw 26.2% · away 42.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 48.1%; both teams to score 52.5%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 1.58 · draw 4.4 · away 5.2; over/under 2.5: 1.61/2.3.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Newcastle United FC
Line-up · confirmed

Newcastle United will make two changes to their lineup.

Source: Sky Sports ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Newcastle United FC
Transfer · confirmed

Newcastle United signed Sean Steur, an 18-year-old player, for $27m (£20m).

Source: The Guardian ↗
Line-up · fit

Malick Thiaw scored an own goal for Bournemouth.

Source: Sky Sports ↗
Line-up · fit

Jacob Ramsey scored a late equalizer for Newcastle.

Source: Sky Sports ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Anthony Elanga was a summer signing for Newcastle United.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Amar Dedić was a summer signing for Newcastle United.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Nico Gonzalez was a summer signing for Newcastle United.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Matias Fernandez-Pardo was signed by Newcastle United.

Source: Sky Sports ↗
Line-up · fit

Joe Willock scored the winning goal for Newcastle United.

Source: Sky Sports ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Lewis Hall rejected interest from Manchester United to sign his new deal.

Source: Sky Sports ↗
Injury · out

Malick Thiaw is no longer at Newcastle United FC.

Source: Football Italia ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Nick Woltemade left Newcastle to join Juventus on loan.

Source: Football Italia ↗
Form

Malick Thiaw had a poor performance, being beaten easily for goals and showing frustration.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Hull City AFC
Transfer · confirmed

Lucas Herrington joined Hull City from MLS side Colorado Rapids on a five-year deal.

Source: The Guardian ↗
Line-up · fit

Lucas Herrington replaced injured goalscorer Nobel Mendy on the opening day of the Premier League season.

Source: The Guardian ↗
Injury · out

Nobel Mendy was injured in Hull City's clash with Manchester United.

Source: The Guardian ↗
Transfer · confirmed

A Hull City midfielder has signed a new contract.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Line-up · confirmed

Mohamed Belloumi made his first start for Hull City in the 1-0 defeat at Sunderland in the EFL Cup third round.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Hull City signed Mohamed Belloumi from OGC Nice in August 2026 on a five-year contract.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Line-up · confirmed

Sergej Jakirovic is Hull City's manager.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Suspension · confirmed

Three Hull City supporters have been banned for a minimum of three years.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Form · fit

Hull City drew 2-2 away to Chelsea.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Konstantinos Tzolakis was Hull City's record signing for a brief spell this summer.

Source: BBC Sport ↗
Transfer · confirmed

Nobel Mendy's arrival followed Konstantinos Tzolakis as Hull City's record signing.

Source: BBC Sport ↗

Key Tactical Factors

  • Hull City unbeaten in 4 games with strong defence (0.75)
  • Newcastle's defence rating 1.19 is poor, but home advantage at St. James' Park
  • Hull's 2-2 draw at Chelsea shows quality, but Newcastle's 1.58 odds imply 63% vs my 58%—marginal value on home win

Public Audit Promise

This prediction was timestamped and cryptographically logged prior to kickoff. Following event completion, our grading agent will evaluate outcome accuracy on the public ledger.

Check Historic Track Record →

From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

All Set For Newcastle! Behind the Tigers Training Hull City ·
PRESS CONFERENCE | Matthias Jaissle pre-Hull City Newcastle United ·

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