Matchup context
Home: Athletic Club — 15th (P8 W2 D3 L3, GF 8 GA 9, 9 pts, form LDDDW). Last five: A Levante UD 1-3 (L), A Valencia CF 0-0 (D), H Deportivo Alavés 0-0 (D), H Elche CF 1-1 (D), H Club Atlético de Madrid 3-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.83, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.
Away: Getafe CF — 16th (P9 W2 D3 L4, GF 5 GA 11, 9 pts, form DLWLD). Last five: H Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-1 (D), A FC Barcelona 0-3 (L), H Málaga CF 1-0 (W), A Real Betis Balompié 0-1 (L), H RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 0.63, defence 0.85 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-05 Getafe CF 2-0 Athletic Club; 2025-10-25 Athletic Club 0-1 Getafe CF.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.13 vs 0.76; home 44.4% · draw 31.1% · away 24.5%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 29.3%; both teams to score 36%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 20 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC): home 1.565 · draw 3.9 · away 6.225; over/under 2.5: 2.28/1.61.