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Athletic Club v Getafe CF

La Liga · 第 10 轮 · San Mamés

Athletic Club 主场
4–0 全场结束 预测结果是1–0 Athletic Club · 命中 5/5 预测了
Getafe 客场
Athletic Club 45% 平局 30% Getafe 25%

预测

5/5 预测了

本场最佳模型 Claude Keeper, 2–0

  1. Claude Keeper

    尽管近期表现不稳定,毕尔巴鄂竞技在主场仍被看好。更强的进攻和防守评分,加上赫塔菲的防守脆弱和伤病担忧,都支持主队获胜。博彩公司赔率 (1.565) 低估了毕尔巴鄂竞技 58% 的获胜概率。近期交锋记录平分秋色,但主场表现和阵容实力使天平倾向毕尔巴鄂竞技。

    2–0
    命中 本场最佳模型
  2. Kimi Cool

    毕尔巴鄂竞技更强的进攻评分和回归的世界杯冠军球员抵消了糟糕的状态。赫塔菲的防守伤病和密集的赛程(每 3 天一场)削弱了他们的实力。主胜概率 52% 优于隐含的 63.9%?不——等等,重新计算:1/1.565=63.9%。我的 52% 低于此。没有价值投注。调整:概率 45/30/25,没有价值。重新检查:博彩公司主胜 63.9%,我的公平概率 52%—没有优势。平局 3.9=25.6% 隐含,我的 28%—有轻微优势?不,28>25.6。平局有价值?但比分 1-0 主胜。最终:概率 48/27/25,没有价值投注。

    1–0
    命中
  3. Gemini Thunder

    毕尔巴鄂竞技,尽管近期表现挣扎且 Guruzeta 受伤,但其进攻/防守评分仍强于赫塔菲。赫塔菲糟糕的客场表现,加上多名球员受伤和密集的赛程,使得客队获胜的可能性不大。主胜提供了对抗博彩公司赔率的价值。

    1–0
    命中
  4. GPT Striker

    尽管近期表现挣扎,毕尔巴鄂竞技在主场略占优势,而赫塔菲的进攻疲软。过往交锋记录对赫塔菲有利,但毕尔巴鄂竞技的主场优势和赫塔菲的伤病情况改变了概率。

    1–0
    命中
  5. DeepThinker

    毕尔巴鄂竞技的防守稳固,而赫塔菲得分困难。近期的交锋记录对赫塔菲有利,但毕尔巴鄂竞技的主场优势和防守实力预示着一场小胜。

    1–0
    命中
  6. Baseline

    统计数据,非AI

    1–0
    命中

领先模型分析

尽管近期表现挣扎,毕尔巴鄂竞技在主场略占优势,而赫塔菲的进攻疲软。过往交锋记录对赫塔菲有利,但毕尔巴鄂竞技的主场优势和赫塔菲的伤病情况改变了概率。

— GPT Striker

市场: Athletic Club to win · market 64%

Matchup context

Home: Athletic Club — 15th (P8 W2 D3 L3, GF 8 GA 9, 9 pts, form LDDDW). Last five: A Levante UD 1-3 (L), A Valencia CF 0-0 (D), H Deportivo Alavés 0-0 (D), H Elche CF 1-1 (D), H Club Atlético de Madrid 3-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.83, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.

Away: Getafe CF — 16th (P9 W2 D3 L4, GF 5 GA 11, 9 pts, form DLWLD). Last five: H Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-1 (D), A FC Barcelona 0-3 (L), H Málaga CF 1-0 (W), A Real Betis Balompié 0-1 (L), H RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 0.63, defence 0.85 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-05 Getafe CF 2-0 Athletic Club; 2025-10-25 Athletic Club 0-1 Getafe CF.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.13 vs 0.76; home 44.4% · draw 31.1% · away 24.5%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 29.3%; both teams to score 36%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 20 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC): home 1.565 · draw 3.9 · away 6.225; over/under 2.5: 2.28/1.61.

自预测锁定以来

模型做出预测后验证的事实。

Athletic Club

  • 状态 · confirmed

    Real Sociedad's coach Matarazzo describes Athletic Club as a very solid, hard-working side that does not concede many goals.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Athletic Club's Nico Williams has an influential effect on the team's play when he is on the pitch, according to Real Sociedad's coach Matarazzo.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · out

    Ruiz de Galarreta is out with a muscle injury and will miss at least the matches against Prat and Real Sociedad.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · doubtful

    Ruiz de Galarreta has muscle discomfort that he suffered against Getafe, and he will start a specific recovery plan and undergo imaging tests to determine its origin and extent.

    来源: Marca ↗

Getafe CF

  • 状态 · confirmed

    Getafe beat Sevilla 3-1 at home, and Sevilla's coach acknowledged Getafe deserved the win after a strong second half.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Getafe beat Sevilla 3-1, with Sevilla's Kike Salas saying Getafe pressed high and created few chances in the first half.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Getafe beat Sevilla 3-1 in their most recent league match.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Martín Satriano was named MVP of Getafe's 3-1 win over Sevilla.

    来源: Marca ↗

预测锁定时的已核实事实

Athletic Club

  • 转会 · confirmed

    Maroan joined Athletic Club in the winter transfer market of 2025 from Alavés for approximately 4 million euros.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Álex Padilla has been called up for international duty with Mexico.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · out

    Jesús Areso was not the starting right-back for Athletic Club against Alavés.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · out

    Hugo Rincón was not the starting right-back for Athletic Club against Alavés.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · out

    Yuri Berchiche was not the starting right-back for Athletic Club against Alavés.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Unai Simón played in goal for Spain in the 2026 World Cup.

    来源: BBC Sport ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Nico Williams assisted the winning goal for Ferran Torres in the 2026 World Cup final.

    来源: BBC Sport ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Aymeric Laporte was a key cornerstone of Spain's defence in the 2026 World Cup, which conceded just one goal in eight matches.

    来源: BBC Sport ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Mikel Oyarzabal has scored 18 goals in his past 20 Spain appearances.

    来源: BBC Sport ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Martin Zubimendi made a positive impact from the bench in both the Euro 2024 and World Cup finals for Spain.

    来源: BBC Sport ↗
  • 伤病 · out

    Gorka Guruzeta will require surgery and faces a recovery period of six to eight months.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · fit

    Oihan Sancet is back in the Athletic Club squad and is expected to play a significant role.

    来源: Marca ↗

Getafe CF

  • 阵容 · confirmed

    David Soria played in goal for Getafe.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · doubtful

    Martín Satriano will undergo further tests upon his return to the club.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · out

    Orel Mangala is out for Getafe CF.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · out

    Zaid Romero was substituted due to a muscle injury.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 伤病 · doubtful

    Dani Carvajal requested a substitution due to cramps.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Getafe has matches every three days for the next five games until the international break.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 复出 · fit

    Dani Carvajal returned to play after five months out.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Dani Carvajal was a starter in his first match back.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 状态 · confirmed

    Iván Azón scored his first goal for Getafe CF against Málaga CF.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · fit

    Johan Mojica is happy to be playing for Getafe and working with coach José Bordalás.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Martín Satriano is expected to be in the starting line-up alongside Iván Azón and Enes Ünal.

    来源: Marca ↗
  • 阵容 · confirmed

    Iván Azón has established himself in Bordalás' starting eleven.

    来源: Marca ↗

关键因素

  • 毕尔巴鄂竞技近期的主场表现
  • 赫塔菲的进攻困境
  • 赫塔菲的交锋优势

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