Matchup context
Home: Frosinone Calcio — 7th (P8 W4 D2 L2, GF 17 GA 13, 14 pts, form DWLWD). Last five: A Atalanta BC 4-4 (D), H US Sassuolo Calcio 4-2 (W), A SSC Napoli 0-3 (L), H Como 1907 2-0 (W), A Genoa CFC 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.42, defence 1.22 from 8 matches.
Away: US Lecce — 14th (P8 W3 D0 L5, GF 9 GA 14, 9 pts, form LWLLW). Last five: H Juventus FC 0-2 (L), A Udinese Calcio 3-0 (W), H Bologna FC 1909 1-2 (L), A AC Milan 0-3 (L), H AC Monza 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 0.88, defence 1.15 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.17 vs 1.31; home 56.9% · draw 20.5% · away 22.7%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 67.5%; both teams to score 64.7%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-28 23:17 UTC): home 1.67 · draw 4.17 · away 4.725; over/under 2.5: 1.4/2.88.