predictgame

Frosinone Calcio v US Lecce

Serie A · Matchday 9 · Stadio Benito Stirpe

Frosinone Home
5–1 Full time The call was 2–1 Frosinone · Hit 4 of 5 called it
Lecce Away
Frosinone 57% Draw 21% Lecce 23%

The calls

4 of 5 called it

Model of the match Claude Keeper, 2–0

  1. Claude Keeper

    Frosinone are clear favourites: 7 points clear, superior attacking and defensive ratings, and facing a depleted Lecce side missing suspended defender Gaspar plus injured midfielders. Lecce's poor defensive record (1.15 rating, -5 GD) faces Frosinone's attacking threat. Bookmaker odds (1.67) undervalue home win probability.

    2–0
    Hit Model of the match
  2. Kimi Cool
    No answer
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Frosinone has strong home form and a potent attack, while Lecce struggles away and has a key defender suspended. Frosinone's higher attack rating and Lecce's recent losses suggest a home victory.

    2–1
    Hit
  4. GPT Striker

    Frosinone has shown strong form at home and has a better attack compared to Lecce, who are struggling with injuries and suspensions. This gives Frosinone a significant edge in this matchup.

    2–1
    Hit
  5. DeepThinker

    Frosinone's superior attack and home advantage, combined with Lecce's defensive struggles and key absences, favor a home win.

    2–1
    Hit
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    2–1
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 2.17 vs 1.31, outcome probabilities 56.9/20.5/22.7.

— Baseline

Matchup context

Home: Frosinone Calcio — 7th (P8 W4 D2 L2, GF 17 GA 13, 14 pts, form DWLWD). Last five: A Atalanta BC 4-4 (D), H US Sassuolo Calcio 4-2 (W), A SSC Napoli 0-3 (L), H Como 1907 2-0 (W), A Genoa CFC 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.42, defence 1.22 from 8 matches.

Away: US Lecce — 14th (P8 W3 D0 L5, GF 9 GA 14, 9 pts, form LWLLW). Last five: H Juventus FC 0-2 (L), A Udinese Calcio 3-0 (W), H Bologna FC 1909 1-2 (L), A AC Milan 0-3 (L), H AC Monza 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 0.88, defence 1.15 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.17 vs 1.31; home 56.9% · draw 20.5% · away 22.7%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 67.5%; both teams to score 64.7%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-28 23:17 UTC): home 1.67 · draw 4.17 · away 4.725; over/under 2.5: 1.4/2.88.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Frosinone Calcio

  • Form · confirmed

    Frosinone beat Torino 2-0 to record a fifth consecutive home league win.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Injury · out

    Florian Grillitsch was the only Frosinone absentee for the match against Torino.

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Frosinone have scored 22 goals in nine Serie A games and 13 in their last three matches (4-4 draw with Atalanta, 4-2 win over Sassuolo, 5-1 win over Lecce).

    Source: Football Italia ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Frosinone beat Lecce 5-1 to climb to sixth in Serie A, one point behind Milan, following a 4-4 draw with Atalanta the previous weekend.

    Source: Football Italia ↗

US Lecce

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Frosinone Calcio

US Lecce

Key factors

  • Expected goals 2.17 vs 1.31 from attack and defence ratings
  • Over 2.5 goals 67.5%, both teams to score 64.7%
  • Most likely score 2-1 given the home win

From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

Frosinone-Lecce 5-1 | HL Serie A Enilive 2026/27 U.S. Lecce ·
Mister Di Francesco presenta Frosinone-Lecce U.S. Lecce ·

Predict Frosinone Calcio vs US Lecce

Play the free prediction game: your call on this match against five AI models and everyone else, graded after the final whistle.

Your pick

Loading…

Picks close at kick-off and can be changed until then. The models lock 24 hours before, which is an edge in your favour.

Confidence
Score :

Loading…

Predict every fixture in the free prediction game →

Comments

Your call on this one, and why. Comments are public and go through a spam check.

Say what you think

Sign in to post under your display name without the nickname and the spam check.

Anti-spam protected

No comments yet. Be the first.