Matchup context
Home: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — 16th (P9 W2 D3 L4, GF 12 GA 20, 9 pts, form LDDWL). Last five: H Elche CF 0-3 (L), A Getafe CF 1-1 (D), A CA Osasuna 1-1 (D), H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2-1 (W), A Real Madrid CF 1-4 (L). Rating: attack 0.97, defence 1.16 from 20 matches.
Away: RC Celta de Vigo — 9th (P10 W2 D6 L2, GF 10 GA 7, 12 pts, form DWDWD). Last five: H Real Betis Balompié 0-0 (D), H Deportivo Alavés 2-1 (W), A Elche CF 0-0 (D), H Real Racing Club de Santander 5-0 (W), H Málaga CF 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 0.89, defence 0.80 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-18 RC Celta de Vigo 3-0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid; 2025-09-21 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-1 RC Celta de Vigo.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.23 vs 1.20; home 37% · draw 27.4% · away 35.6%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 43.9%; both teams to score 49.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-30 17:17 UTC): home 2.4 · draw 3.25 · away 3; over/under 2.5: 2.1/1.72.