Matchup context
Home: Villarreal CF — 19th (P3 W1 D0 L2, GF 8 GA 8, 3 pts, form LWL). Last five: H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0-1 (L), A Valencia CF 2-1 (W), A Liverpool FC 3-4 (L), H Elche CF 0-0 (D), H SSC Napoli 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.85, defence 1.20 from 11 matches.
Away: Paris Saint-Germain FC — 1st (P3 W3 D0 L0, GF 14 GA 5, 9 pts, form WWW). Last five: H FC Barcelona 4-2 (W), A Manchester City FC 4-2 (W), H ŠK Slovan Bratislava 6-1 (W), H Arsenal FC 5-4 (W), A FC Bayern München 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.55, defence 0.95 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.72 vs 2.83; home 22.1% · draw 17.2% · away 60.7%; most likely score 1-2; over 2.5 goals 83.2%; both teams to score 77.3%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-02 23:17 UTC): home 4.78 · draw 4.6 · away 1.61; over/under 2.5: 1.34/3.3.