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Villarreal CF v Paris Saint-Germain FC

Champions League · Matchday 4 · Estadio de la Cerámica

Villarreal Home
The call 1–2Paris SG to win 4 of 4 back Paris SG
Paris SG Away
Villarreal 22% Draw 17% Paris SG 61%

Predict Villarreal CF vs Paris Saint-Germain FC

Play the free prediction game: your call on this match against five AI models and everyone else, graded after the final whistle.

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The calls

4 of 4 back Paris SG
  1. Claude Keeper

    PSG's elite attacking potency and perfect UCL form heavily favors the away side despite personnel losses. Villarreal's weak defensive rating (1.20) and current poor league form (W1D0L2) suggest vulnerability. PSG implied win probability of 62% undervalues their attacking superiority and Villarreal's defensive fragility.

    1–3
  2. Kimi Cool
    No answer
  3. Gemini Thunder

    PSG boasts a perfect UCL record and a significantly stronger attack. Despite some injuries, their form and rating suggest a comfortable win. Villarreal's recent struggles and lower rating make them underdogs.

    1–3
  4. GPT Striker

    PSG's current form and attacking prowess significantly outweigh Villarreal's struggles, especially with injuries affecting the home side.

    1–3
  5. DeepThinker

    PSG's strong form and superior ratings give them the edge, but Villarreal's home advantage and recent reaction under new coach could make it competitive.

    1–2
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    1–2

What the lead model saw

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.72 vs 2.83, outcome probabilities 22.1/17.2/60.7.

— Baseline

Matchup context

Home: Villarreal CF — 19th (P3 W1 D0 L2, GF 8 GA 8, 3 pts, form LWL). Last five: H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0-1 (L), A Valencia CF 2-1 (W), A Liverpool FC 3-4 (L), H Elche CF 0-0 (D), H SSC Napoli 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.85, defence 1.20 from 11 matches.

Away: Paris Saint-Germain FC — 1st (P3 W3 D0 L0, GF 14 GA 5, 9 pts, form WWW). Last five: H FC Barcelona 4-2 (W), A Manchester City FC 4-2 (W), H ŠK Slovan Bratislava 6-1 (W), H Arsenal FC 5-4 (W), A FC Bayern München 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.55, defence 0.95 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.72 vs 2.83; home 22.1% · draw 17.2% · away 60.7%; most likely score 1-2; over 2.5 goals 83.2%; both teams to score 77.3%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-02 23:17 UTC): home 4.78 · draw 4.6 · away 1.61; over/under 2.5: 1.34/3.3.

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Villarreal CF

  • Line-up · confirmed

    Logan Costa is called up for international duty.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Tani Oluwaseyi is called up for international duty.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Péter Gulácsi is the starting goalkeeper for Villarreal.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Nicolas Pépé is still out injured for Villarreal.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Tajon Buchanan is still out injured for Villarreal.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Manager · confirmed

    Inigo Perez is the coach of Villarreal CF.

    Source: The Guardian ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Sergi Cardona scored for Villarreal.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Villarreal CF will play on Sunday, November 22nd.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Alberto Moleiro has been key to Villarreal's recent reaction, playing in a central '10' role.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Ilias Akhomach has been a decisive player for Villarreal and understands the new coach's ideas.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Nathan-Dylan Saliba was involved in a notable play.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Georges Mikautadze scored a late goal for Villarreal CF.

    Source: Marca ↗

Paris Saint-Germain FC

  • Injury · out

    Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament and will require surgery.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Injury · out

    Marquinhos sustained a thigh injury and will be out for a few weeks.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Injury · out

    Ousmane Dembele sustained a thigh injury and will be out for a few weeks.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    The pre-match show for Paris Saint-Germain versus Barcelona included a light show spelling out every player's name on the pitch.

    Source: The Guardian ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Vitinha scored a goal.

    Source: Sky Sports ↗

Key factors

  • Expected goals 1.72 vs 2.83 from attack and defence ratings
  • Over 2.5 goals 83.2%, both teams to score 77.3%
  • Most likely score 1-2 given the away win

From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

Avant match et Match center en direct : Villarreal - Paris Saint-Germain PSG - Paris Saint-Germain ·
Veille de match en direct de Villarreal avant Villarreal-Paris PSG - Paris Saint-Germain ·

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